Very early this morning, the Prime Minister Scott Morrison visited the Governor-General Sir Peter Cosgrove to advise him to schedule the Federal election for Saturday 18 May 2019.
The PM noted that: “To secure the future, the road ahead depends on a strong economy. And that’s why there is so much at stake at this election…So at this election there is a clear choice. It is a choice that will determine the economy that Australians live in, not just for the next three years but for the next decade”.
This represents a 36 day campaign, with no campaigning on Easter holy days and ANZAC day. Today, the GG took actions to prorogue the Parliament, dissolve the House of Representatives, take actions for a half Senate election for this election.
The election timetable is as follows:
Issue of the writs 11 April 2019
Close of the rolls 18 April 2019
Close of nominations 23 April 2019
Polling day 18 May 2019
Return of the writs (latest date) 28 June 2019
Caretaker conventions
In the period preceding the election, the government assumes a ‘caretaker role’ where the business of government continues and ordinary matters of administration still need to be addressed, but that they are unable to: make major policy decisions that are likely to commit an incoming government; make significant appointments; or enter major contracts or undertakings.
This ensures that their actions do not bind an incoming government and limit its freedom of action as every general election carries the possibility of a change of government.
Further information about the caretaker conventions are available on the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet’s website, click here.
Australian Labor Party
Opposition leader Bill Shorten kicked off Labor’s campaign outside a family home in the seat of Deakin (currently held by the Liberal’s Michael Sukkar) by stating that his party has “the energy, positive plan, are united and are future focused” compared to Liberal’s tiredness, living in the past, having a negative fear campaign and three years of division.
House of Representatives
The current composition of the House of Representatives has 150 seats, with the Coalition holding 74 seats, Labor 69 seats, and Independents 7 seats.
The Australian Electoral Commission will expand the House to 151 seats by adding two seats ACT (Bean) and Victoria (Fraser) but abolishing one in South Australia (Port Adelaide), and has had boundary redistributions in two Coalition seats (Corangamite and Dunkley in Victoria) which notionally are Labor.
As such, the Coalition starts the campaign with a notional 73 seats and Labor with 72.
Current Opinion Polls
Newspoll and Essential polling show that two party preferred is 52 ALP versus 48 Coalition, while Fairfax/Ipsos, Galaxy and Roy Morgan showing 53 ALP versus 47 Coalition.
The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green has a swing calculator which can be accessed here.
The Senate
The 18th of May election will also see a half-Senate election (as compared to the full Senate election during the Double Dissolution election in 2016).
As a consequence, half of the Senators will need to recontest their positions and continue through their six year term. The list of Senators up for re-election is on the APH website.
The Senate voting system was changed shortly before the 2016 election to allow optional preferential voting above and below the line. It is difficult to say what outcome this may have, but suffice to say that the threshold for minor party/independents will increase from 1/13 (7.7%) of State’s vote to 1/7 (14.3%) of a State’s vote.
Further information on the Senate reforms can be found at APH website.
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