Coalition in majority, Labor in mourning

Saturday night was an eventful evening as we saw a return of the Morrison Government.

At one level, the election changed very little. The Coalition looks to form majority government with Morrison strengthening his position to hold from 74 seats to 77 seats in an expanded 151 seat House of Representatives, with modest changes in the individual seats: Labor lost Herbert and Longman in Queensland, Lindsay in NSW and Braddon and Bass in Tasmania. The Coalition lost Dunkley and Corangamite in Victoria, while former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lost his seat of Warringah in NSW to an independent Zali Steggall.

So for all the hype and attention, the election ostensibly changed little in cold numbers.

Yet at another level, the election changed a lot. Everyone both inside and outside the Coalition had expected the party to lose – senior Liberal members had commented to Advisory Street during the election campaign that the community had every reason not to vote for the Coalition back in following the leadership spill of last year. The Coalition was also walking into the campaign behind in the polls, the betting odds, and Bill Shorten was considered the audience winner in the three televised campaign debates.

Yet, Scott Morrison and his masterful campaigning has turned the Coalition’s chances from oblivion to Liberal hero, gaining significant authority within his party and marking his place in history.

Labor in mourning

Labor will be grieving for the coming period – not only for the loss of a statesman like former PM Bob Hawke, but also for the lost opportunity of forming government.

Over recent days, Advisory Street has spoken to various members who are shellshocked about the result. At a time when their transition team was expected to be kicking into gear delivering a 100 day plan, Labor is now reviewing what went wrong.

As Wayne Swan, President of the ALP, penned on Sunday:

“Every political party which suffers a defeat learns one lesson and that is to listen even more carefully. In light of this result, we need to examine our policy framework and our campaign strategies”.

While there is no single contributing factor, the Labor loss is likely to be a combination of: a persistently unpopular leader, a big target policy agenda which they were unable to coherently sell, and competing regional factors such as the Adani coalmine affecting Victorian and Queensland voters in different ways.

Labor will now be looking for a new leader as Bill Shorten has stepped down. Both the Parliamentary caucus and the rank-and-file membership will have a say in this given the leadership rules introduced by Kevin Rudd back in 2013. Anthony Albanese (‘Albo’) has already thrown his hat into the ring. This is not surprising given he contested in the last leadership ballot against Shorten in 2013 winning nearly 60% of the ALP membership votes. This afternoon, the Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek has announced she won't contest the leadership, which leaves others like Chris Bowen, Joel Fitzgibbon and Jim Chalmers.

In a tribute to Bob Hawke's legacy and his consensus building style of leadership, Swan went on to note:

“Having a respectful and intelligent conversation with the Australian people has in the past shown Australia the best of Labor. We need to make sure we do that, reconnect where we’ve lost touch and cement the bonds that are the foundation of our great Party”.

What’s on the Morrison Government’s policy agenda?

While some commentators have noted that Morrison has an unwritten agenda, this is not necessarily the case.

The Coalition had a total of 66 election commitments at a price tag of $1.4 billion costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office in the final week of the campaign, and their 2 April Federal Budget is the real blueprint.

The Budget contained detailed spending plans, including a massive infrastructure Budget, new health spending and the $75 a head ($125 for couples) power rebate. But the centrepiece was personal and small business tax cuts beginning in the current 2018-19 tax year.

The Coalition’s election strategy (view here) includes:

• More jobs in a stronger economy

• Strengthening Australia's World-Class Health System

• Youth Mental Health and Suicide Prevention

• Delivering high quality skills and vocational education

• Supporting first home buyers

• Backing small business with lower taxes and lower energy costs

• Supporting Retirees

• Infrastructure to bust congestion and keep Australians safe on our roads

• Backing the economic prosperity of our regions

• Stronger Defence and supporting our veterans

What’s happened in the Senate?

The half Senate election has seen Morrison strengthen the Coalition's position in the Senate to 34 seats partly made way by Senate reforms changing the above and below the line voting. The Coalition will still need to rely on the support of 5 or 6 crossbench Senators should Labor and the Greens not support the Government’s measures, leaving the likes of One Nation, Centre Alliance, Jacqui Lambie and Cory Bernadi in strong bargaining positions.

What next?

We anticipate Scott Morrison will finalise his Cabinet and Ministry in the coming days with senior members such as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton likely to stay in their roles, while close allies such as Ben Morton, Steve Irons and Stuart Robert and other strong performers like Tim Wilson and Simon Birmingham likely to be promoted in the reshuffle in portfolios such as Indigenous Affairs, Jobs and Employment and Human Services.

Following the return of the writs, Parliament is likely to resume in late June allowing the new PM to charge ahead with his policy agenda.

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