Welcome to our mid year newsletter, preparing you for the political and policy battles as we head into the 2019 election. Parliament resumed this week from a 6 week winter recess – but it was certainly no rest for the wicked!
Yesterday's Coalition Party room was a true test for the Turnbull versus Abbott leadership. Both leaders have risen and fallen on the climate change sword, and it will be a challenging period for the Coalition to wrestle on this policy.
That’s not to say that the Coalition's woes are over – PM Turnbull's net satisfaction rating dropped to -19% this week, off the back of a poorer than expected outcome from July's Super Saturday by-elections.
The by-elections showed that the Coalition was outmanned, outresourced and outmessaged, particularly in crucial seats like Longman in QLD where the Coalition's primary vote collapsed to 29%, losing votes to Pauline Hanson's One Nation.
Which brings us to the Senate crossbenches – can anyone keep up with them?
The 45th Parliament is exceptional in many ways with a record number of 20 Senate crossbenches but also a record turnover as Senators have changed parties (think Lucy Gichuhi or Fraser Anning), quit politics (think Nick Xenophon) or fallen victim to dual citizenship (think Larissa Waters or Jacquie Lambie).
Regardless of which party they represent, the crossbenches are crucial to the Government's success marching into campaign 2019 – think company tax cuts and the Government trying to pass it for the third time.
Labor will also be looking for crossbench support, for example, on issues such as supporting Katter Party's new member Senator Fraser Anning's motion yesterday to extend the Banking Royal Commission by 12 months.
And as Shorten faces his own challenges, including possibly losing a member in the normally bellweather seat of Lindsay, it is too close to tell from two-party preferred numbers who may win election 2019.
As Lord Baden Powell famously said: "Be prepared".
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